The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 under current conditions, nearly three percentage points lower than what would have been expected under a low tariff baseline scenario, according to the WTO Secretariat's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on 16 April. It said that the application of reciprocal tariffs and broader spillover of policy uncertainty could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5 per cent in global goods trade and hurt export-oriented least-developed countries. Services trade, though not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be adversely affected, with the global volume of commercial services trade now forecast to grow by 4.0%, slower than expected.

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