15-May-2025

Market Speak: OPEC trims 2025 global GDP forecast to 2.9%, oil demand growth holds firm

In its latest monthly report, OPEC slightly trimmed its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9 percent, while keeping the 2026 outlook steady at 3.1 percent. The downgrade reflects weaker-than-expected Q1 data, especially from the U.S., whose 2025 forecast was cut to 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, Eurozone growth for 2025 was revised up to 1 percent, and forecasts for China, India, Brazil, and Russia remained unchanged. Despite minor Q1 data revisions, OPEC held its global oil demand growth forecast steady at 1.3 million barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026, with non-OECD countries continuing to drive most of the growth.

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