The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has stated that the global economy remained resilient in 2024, expanding at a solid annualized pace of 3.2% through the second half of the year. However, recent activity indicators point to a softening of global growth prospects. Business and consumer sentiment have weakened in some countries. Inflationary pressures continue to linger in many economies. At the same time, policy uncertainty has been high and significant risks remain.

Global GDP growth is expected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending. Annual real GDP growth in the United States is projected to slow from its very strong recent pace, to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Euro area real GDP growth is projected to be 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, as heightened uncertainty keeps growth subdued. Growth in China is projected to slow from 4.8% this year to 4.4% in 2026.

OECD noted that over 2025-26 inflation is projected to be higher than previously expected, although still moderating as economic growth softens. Headline inflation is projected to fall from 3.8% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026 in the G20 economies. Higher-than-expected inflation would prompt more restrictive monetary policy and could give rise to disruptive repricing in financial markets. On the upside, agreements that lower tariffs from current levels could result in stronger growth.

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