The US Energy Information Administration or EIA stated in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook or STEO that although crude oil prices have fallen recently, it continues to expect crude oil prices will rise in the second half of 2024 (2H24). The Brent crude oil spot price ended July at $81 per barrel (b), compared with an average for the month of $85/b. EIA expects the Brent price will return to between $85/b and $90/b by the end of the year. Rising crude oil prices in the forecast are result of falling global oil inventories. EIA estimates global oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 1H24 and will fall by 0.8 million b/d in 2H24. Inventory withdrawals stem in part from ongoing OPEC+ production cuts. EIA expects crude oil prices to rise in the coming months though its forecast for the annual average Brent crude oil price in 2025 is down from a forecast of $88/b in July STEO, owing mostly to reduced oil consumption.

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